Greenwich Market Statistics for Single Family Homes the first half of 2017 show definite improvement over last year, with Unit Sales up +7.5%, Sales Volume up +14.4%, the Average Sale Price up +6.5% and the Median Sale Price up +6.1%. As soon as the election was over last November, the floodgates opened and many buyers “got off the fence” and have been buying ever since but, not consistently. Both Contracts and Sales this year have literally been “Up and Down”, all depending on what month it is!!
Inventory overall has been down 6.5% versus last year but, mostly up when compared to the average figures for 2007-2016. Inventory in the under $1M price range is WAY down (-45%) versus June 2016. While this range comprises only 6% of the current inventory as of the end of June, it comprises 20% of all contracts. Demand is clearly outstripping supply in this price range. One range in which there has been a remarkable increase in inventory this June versus last is the $2-3M range, with an increase of +21%.
When you compare 2017 contracts to 2016 contracts, it is clear to see how the market is wavering up and down, month to month. Contracts were way up in January 2017 versus January 2016 (+96%!!), then down -15% in February, up +22% in March, down -47% in April, up +26% in May and down -10% in June. Whew!! Since contracts are predictors of future sales, we always like to see them up as realtors. While we remind ourselves that last year was a comparatively slow year, the average figures for 2007-2016 illustrate this “see-sawing” effect as well. This “consistent inconsistency” so far this year is unsettling. Some believe the unpredictability of interest rates has caused this market fluctuation.
In looking at contracts Jan.-June 2017 vs. Jan.-June 2016, we see a “sweet spot” emerging in the upper end of the market in the $6-7M range. This range is up an astounding +233% year-to-year, with 10 units under contract as of the end of June this year versus only 3 units under contract at the same time last year. What is unusual is that, while the lower price ranges have driven the Greenwich market in recent history, the $1-2M, $2-3M and $3-4M ranges are all down in contract number versus 2016. On the other hand, all ranges between $4-8M and the over $10M range are up significantly. It is refreshing to see the upper end of the market moving this year. Since there are considerably more homes selling in the $1-2M range than the higher ranges, however, this is still the strongest performing range, with 33% of current contracts as of the end of June 2017.
Overall sales are up +7%, 2017 vs. 2016, as of the end of June. Once again—by far—the strongest performing price range here is the $6-7M range, with a dazzling increase in sales of +600% Jan.-June 2017 vs. 2016, with 7 homes sold as of the end of June this year versus 1 sold at the same time last year. Clearly, many of the many homes that went to contract earlier this spring are now closing. Once again, the $1-2M range is still responsible for 35% of all sales so far this year.
This strong closing activity has persisted into the past few weeks since the beginning of July, with 30 Single Family Homes closing between 7/1 and 7/18. The summer months are always unpredictable but, serious buyers always have their eye on the market and can fuel the summer market to become a strong one. We hope to continue this strong momentum into the Fall Market.
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